I am on the 2025/26 job market.
Why are cities in America struggling to supply housing at affordable prices? The conventional view is that housing regulations restrict the expansion of big, high-productivity cities. I document how shifting demand within these cities towards costly margins of urban growth —infill and redevelopment, as opposed to sprawl— has been central to rising unaffordability since at least 1990. I measure this by combining satellite imagery, digitized building footprints and Census data to track development and redevelopment at 30x30 meter resolution nationwide. Big cities increasingly relied on costly infill and redevelopment as commuting speed stagnation and the revival of urban amenities concentrated demand in already-urbanized areas. A quantitative spatial model reveals that relaxing zoning regulations to small-city levels —mostly easing suburban expansion— would only modestly increase big-city populations, since they would still be bound by the costs of redevelopment in dense areas where demand concentrates.